i think you're optimistic when you're hoping remote-workers have more than 2.1 kids.
remote work is easy when you're young and alone.
as the idiom says "it takes a village to raise a child". it is much harder to form deep enough ties when you're remote-working. alos, it is much harder to find a grandmother to babysit when both partners want to go for a date in the first year/ two of their child.
about PAYG:
paying for someone who invested before you has a different name too. ponzi-scheme :)
this should stop ASAP - when it is manageable.
you tell people - you must contribute those 60% to some fund - but you'll only be able to pull what you've paid in. 30-40 years of contributions invested and compounded - should create a good nest egg. probably good enough for 20-30 years of retirement.
this way someone who enters the workforce now - knows his funds are safe, regardless birth rate - or efficiency of the pension scheme.
the debt government is taking - should only cover past generations. this is a big number - but at least it is not infinite.
generally agree with your take tbh! i think as of now, we don’t know if and how much poland will be able to pay to retirees 30-40 years from now. hard to predict. not looking great, but better than other western european countries
there's an old proverb that goes some thing like "the troubles of many is a fool's solace" (probably killed it in translation).
but my point is:
do the arithmetic, and probably all western countries will solve it the same way - they will inflate the obligations away. meaning: they'll let inflation chew away 1/2-3/4 of the obligation's value.
for the individual, it means - be prepared to get really small real value. e.g. that you'd be able to buy 1/2-1/4 the amount of things that you can buy now with expected pension. assuming you still want to keep you standard of living in retirement - save. start saving when you're young - so the investment has time to compound.
if you have a regime that would punish you for that - save in Switzerland :)
Switzerland (where i've been contributing) is not PAYG (only in small part - i.e. the "1st pillar"). also doesn't run a deficit.
regarding inflation, afaik inflation also influences wages, and if wages grow than under current pension sys rules (in pl), pension should grow too.
i guess they'll adjust the math later on if they cannot fund the deficit. poland still has low debt though, and good growth. it's not in a bad position
thank for sharing.
i think you're optimistic when you're hoping remote-workers have more than 2.1 kids.
remote work is easy when you're young and alone.
as the idiom says "it takes a village to raise a child". it is much harder to form deep enough ties when you're remote-working. alos, it is much harder to find a grandmother to babysit when both partners want to go for a date in the first year/ two of their child.
about PAYG:
paying for someone who invested before you has a different name too. ponzi-scheme :)
this should stop ASAP - when it is manageable.
you tell people - you must contribute those 60% to some fund - but you'll only be able to pull what you've paid in. 30-40 years of contributions invested and compounded - should create a good nest egg. probably good enough for 20-30 years of retirement.
this way someone who enters the workforce now - knows his funds are safe, regardless birth rate - or efficiency of the pension scheme.
the debt government is taking - should only cover past generations. this is a big number - but at least it is not infinite.
generally agree with your take tbh! i think as of now, we don’t know if and how much poland will be able to pay to retirees 30-40 years from now. hard to predict. not looking great, but better than other western european countries
there's an old proverb that goes some thing like "the troubles of many is a fool's solace" (probably killed it in translation).
but my point is:
do the arithmetic, and probably all western countries will solve it the same way - they will inflate the obligations away. meaning: they'll let inflation chew away 1/2-3/4 of the obligation's value.
for the individual, it means - be prepared to get really small real value. e.g. that you'd be able to buy 1/2-1/4 the amount of things that you can buy now with expected pension. assuming you still want to keep you standard of living in retirement - save. start saving when you're young - so the investment has time to compound.
if you have a regime that would punish you for that - save in Switzerland :)
Switzerland (where i've been contributing) is not PAYG (only in small part - i.e. the "1st pillar"). also doesn't run a deficit.
regarding inflation, afaik inflation also influences wages, and if wages grow than under current pension sys rules (in pl), pension should grow too.
i guess they'll adjust the math later on if they cannot fund the deficit. poland still has low debt though, and good growth. it's not in a bad position